Extensive progress has been achieved in the treatment and prevention of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) over the 42-year period since the onset of the epidemic. However, eradicating HIV and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is challenging and remains a leading priority for global public health. In 2022, there were still an estimated 39 million individuals living with HIV, 1.3 million people contracted the virus, and 630,000 lives were lost to AIDS across the globe1. In July 2023, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS outlined an ambitious but feasible roadmap to end AIDS by 2030, which featured a particular focus on women and girls in African countries. This demographic carries an unequal burden of new HIV infections, with an estimated 3,100 girls and young women aged 15–24 years acquiring HIV each week2. Undoubtedly, accomplishing the objective of ending HIV/AIDS necessitates investing in interventions that prioritize vulnerable groups at the highest risk of acquiring new infections. Moreover, it requires innovative strategies adapted to the evolving nature of the epidemic. This depends on understanding how the dynamics of the HIV epidemic shift over time, to identify the main drivers of new infections and to develop better targeted interventions.