Malignant mesothelioma is a rare but highly aggressive cancer primarily caused by occupational asbestos exposure [1]. Despite global efforts to reduce exposure, mesothelioma remains a significant public health concern due to its long latency period and poor prognosis, with survival often measured in months rather than years [2]. The disease predominantly affects the pleura, though it can also arise in the peritoneum, pericardium, and testes, contributing to its complex clinical presentation [3]. While incidence rates have declined in some developed countries, such as Australia, the United States, and parts of Western Europe, overall mortality has not shown a corresponding decrease [4]. This discrepancy is largely attributed to an aging population and persistent occupational risks, particularly in industries with historical asbestos use [5]. Individual-level evidence from the world’s largest chrysotile-exposed cohort has recently reinforced this concern. The study reported a seven-fold increase in mesothelioma mortality among workers in the highest cumulative-exposure category [6]. Moreover, as industrialization expands in lower- and middle-income countries, along with aging demographics worldwide, mesothelioma incidence and mortality are expected to remain a critical issue [7].

Cancer remains one of the leading causes of mortality worldwide, accounting for approximately 16.8 % of global deaths, making it a central focus of public health and economic policy [8]. The COVID-19 pandemic has further complicated this burden by delaying cancer screenings and treatment, potentially leading to worse outcomes for mesothelioma patients [9], [10]. Despite the growing need for up-to-date epidemiological insights, few studies have systematically assessed mesothelioma trends using the most recent Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 and GLOBOCAN 2022 datasets. Existing research has primarily focused on incidence and mortality patterns but has often overlooked broader epidemiological relationships, such as mesothelioma’s potential associations with other cancers.

Examining the correlation between mesothelioma and other malignancies may provide valuable insights into shared environmental risk factors, occupational exposures, and possible diagnostic overlaps [11]. While mesothelioma’s etiology is well-established, its potential epidemiological connections to other cancers remain underexplored [12], [13]. Identifying these relationships could aid in developing more effective screening programs, prevention strategies, and healthcare resource allocation, particularly in asbestos-exposed populations. Additionally, investigating the influence of socioeconomic factors, such as the Human Development Index (HDI), on mesothelioma burden could provide a more nuanced understanding of global disparities in disease trends.

The GBD 2021 study offers a comprehensive framework for analyzing disease burden across 204 countries, covering 369 health conditions, while GLOBOCAN 2022 provides detailed cancer-specific incidence and mortality data worldwide [14], [15], [16]. Leveraging these datasets, our study aims to systematically assess mesothelioma trends from 1980 to 2022, explore its associations with other cancers, and examine its relationship with HDI. Furthermore, through age-period-cohort (APC) modeling and machine-learning-based burden projections, we seek to address limitations in existing predictive methodologies and provide a more refined forecast of mesothelioma’s future trajectory. By integrating these approaches, this study aims to bridge existing gaps in mesothelioma epidemiology and contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of its global burden, with implications for both research and public health policy.