The United Kingdom aims to be smoke-free by 2030, and in pursuit of this goal, has proposed a Generational Sales Ban (GSB). While somewhat innovative, the GSB exclusively targets future generations, potentially overlooking the immediate health burdens and illicit market risks associated with current smokers. This study argues for a cap- and-levy scheme as a more comprehensive and efficient alternative. By directly addressing supply, consumption, and state tax revenues, a cap-and-levy approach offers a broader impact on smoking prevalence including existing smokers, while potentially mitigating the unintended consequences of a sales ban, such as fuelling the illicit trade and reducing tax revenues. The provision of accessible and appealing alternatives to combustible tobacco is crucial in minimizing the appeal of illicit products under any restrictive policy. This analysis suggests that a cap-and-levy mechanism warrants consideration as a policy instrument that could outperform the GSB in achieving significant and immediate reductions in smoking-related harm, without the unintended consequences that the GSB would produce.
Highlights
The UK remains short of the 2030 smoke-free goal despite declining smoking rates.
The government proposes a Generational Sales Ban (GSB) prohibiting sales to those born after 2009.
Studies suggest that GSB may fuel the illicit tobacco market (26% of UK consumption) and reduce tax revenues.
This study advocates a cap-and-levy scheme as a more effective alternative for achieving the UK’s smoke-free ambitions.
Providing appealing alternatives curbs illicit tobacco use under strict regulations.
Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding StatementThis study did not receive any funding.
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I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
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I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable.
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Data AvailabilityData is publicly available.
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